Macroeconomics Seminars

For further inquiries please contact Refet Gurkaynak.

Unless noted seminars are scheduled for Friday’s, at 15:40, in FEASS A228 seminar room.


30.09.2022Refet S. Gürkaynak, Bilkent University"Exchange Rate and Inflation under Weak Monetary Policy: Turkey Verifes Theory"
10.10.2022Dr. Cosmina Dorobantu, Co-Director of Public Policy Programme at the Alan Turing Institute"Rethinking Government with AI"
07.10.2022Ju Hyun Pyun

(Bilkent and Korea Universities)
"Capital Account Policy, Firm-Dynamics, and Export-led Growth"


07.10.2021Valerie A. Ramey (UCSD) The Macroeconomic Consequences of Infrastructure Investment
13.10.2021Luciano Pomatto (Caltech)Monotone Additive Statistics
14.10.2021Mark W. Watson (Princeton)Aggregate Implications of Changing Sectoral Trends
20.10.2021Veronica Guerrieri (Chicago Booth)Monetary Policy in Times of Structural Reallocation
04.11.2021Francesco Bianchi (Johns Hopkins and Duke )Monetary and Fiscal Policies in Times of Large Debt: Unity is Strength
11.11.2021Eric Leeper (University of Virginia) Recovery of 1933
16.12.2021Victoria Ivashina

(Harvard Business School)
Why is Dollar Debt Cheaper? Evidence from Peru
09.03.2022Giovanni Ricco
(Warwick and CEPR)
A Discussion of Central Bank Information Effects.
17.03.2022Sang Seok Lee

(Bilkent University)
"Why is Consumption so Seasonal?"


02.09.2020Sang Seok Lee, Bilkent University“The Ends of 30 Big Depressions”
25.09.2020Ben Bernanke (Brookings Institution)"A Conversation with Ben Bernanke"
08.10.2020Kenneth Rogoff, Harvard University“Wıll the Secular Decline in Exchange Rate and Inflation Volatility Survive COVID-19?”
16.10.2020Alp Şimşek, MIT and Chicago Booth“Monetary Policy with Opinionated Markets”
06.11.2020Ali Özdağlı, FRB Dallas“Interest Rates and Insurance Company Investment BehavIor”
04.12.2020Ricardo Reis, LSE
‘’The People versus the Markets: A Parsimonious Model of Inflation Expectations’’
30.09.2021Yuriy Gorodnichenko (Berkeley) Unbundling of Quantitative Easing: Taking a Cue from Treasury Auctions


04.09.2019Sang Seok LEE (Bilkent University)"A Modest Proposal for Sharing Consumption Risk"
15.10.2019Mark KerBenfischer (Economist at Deutsche Bundesbank)"What do a Billion Trades say About the Effect of Monetary Policy on Financial Markets"
10.12.2019Ambrio Cesa - Bianchi ( Bank of England)Firm Heterogeneity, Credit Spreads, and Monetary Policy
20.12.2019Kamil Yılmaz (Koç University)"Bond Market Connectedness and Monetary Policy in the New Normal "
06.03.20200Özer Karagedikli (SEACEN)TBA
13.03.2020Antonella Trigari (Bocconi University)TBA
24.03.2020Ali Özdağlı (Boston Fed)TBA
03.04.2020Filip Matejka (CERGE)TBA
13.04.2020Ruy Lama (IMF)TBA
22.04.2020Nobu Kiyotaki (Princeton and LSE)TBA
08.05.2020Morten Ravn (UCL)TBA
19.05.2020Corina Boar (NYU)TBA
02.06.2020Ulrich Muller (Princeton)TBA
Sinem Hacıoğlu (BOE)TBA


05.10.2018Anna Cieslak  (Duke University )
Non-Monetary News in Central Bank Communication
09.10.2018Refet S. Gürkaynak (Bilkent University) Measuring Euro Area Monetary Policy
26.10.2018Marek Jarocinski (European Central Bank)
International spillovers of the Fed and ECB monetary policy surprises
02.11.2018Burcin Kısacikoglu (Bilkent University)
Real Term Structure and New Keynesian Models
09.11.2018Luca Brugnolini (Central Bank of Malta)
Forecasting Deflation Probability in the Euro Area: A Combinatoric Approach
30.11.2018Barbara Rossi (ICREA-UPF and Barcelona GSE)
Alternative Tests for Correct Specification of Conditional Forecast Densities
11.12.2018Burcu Duygan-Bump (Federal Reserve Board)
The Fed's Inaugural Financial Stability Report: The need, the framework, the outcome
14.12.2018Eric T. Swanson (University of California at Irvine)
Implications of Labor Market Frictions for Risk Aversion and Risk Premia
21.12.2018Daron Acemoğlu (MIT)
Demographics and Automation
25.12.2018Yıldız Akkaya Blake
Uncertainty of Interest Rate Path as a Monetary Policy Instrument
15.03.2019Bill English (Yale University)
Money-Financed Fiscal Programs: A Cautionary Tale
27.03.2019Philippe Weil
12.04.2019Carlo Favero (University of BocconiAusterity
26.04.2019Pol Antras (Harvard University)Venting Out: Exports During a Domestic Slump
03.05.2019Stephen Hansen (University of Oxford)Policymakers’ Uncertainty
23.05.2019 Thursday at 10:30Martin Uribe (Columbia University)The Neo-Fisher Effect: Econometric Evidence from Empirical and Optimizing Models
24.05.2019Simon Gilchrist (NYU)The Real Effects of Credit Booms and Busts


06.10.2017Lars Svensson (Stockholm School of Economics)‘’Cost-Benefit Analysis of Leaning Against the Wind’’
13.10.2017Jean Paul Renne
(University of Lausanne)
‘’Measuring Inflation Anchoring and Uncertainty: A US and Area Comparison ‘’
20.10.2017Silvia Miranda Agrppino
(Monetary Analysis - MFAD / Bank of England)
‘’Unsurprising Shocks: Information, Premia, and the Monetary Transmission. ‘’
20.10.2017Giovanni Ricco
(University of Warwick)
‘’The Transmission of Monetary Policy Shocks"
03.11.2017Paul Hubert
''Central Bank information and the effects of monetary shocks‘’
17.11.2017Gökçe Karasoy
(Bilkent University)
''Stock Market's Assessment of Monetary Policy transmission : The Cash Flow Effect''

17.11.2017Cem Çakmaklı
(Koç Unversity)
‘’Modeling and Estimation of Synchronization in Size-Sorted Portfolio Returns‘’
01.12.2017Ethan Ilzetski
‘’ Measuring Productivity Dispersion: Lessons From Counting One - Hundred Million ballots‘’
22.12.2017Özer Karagedikli (Reserve Bank of New Zealand)‘’Quantitative or qualitative forward guidance : Does it matter ?‘’
27.12.2017Fatih Karahan
(Federal Reserve Bank of New York )
“Demographic Origins of the Startup Deficit.”
28.12.2017Burcu Duygan-Bump (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System)"Unconventional" Monetary Policy as Conventional Monetary Policy: A perspective from the U.S. in the 1920s''
23.03.2018Michael Mc Mahon (St. Hugh's College, University of Oxford)''The Long-Run Information Effect of Central Bank Narrative ''
30.03.2018Dante Amenguel Baez (Department of Economics, CEMFI)''Normality tests for latent variables''
20.04.2018Taisuke Nakata ''The Risky Steady State and the Interest Rate Lower Bound''
04.05.2018Ebru Voyvoda (Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, METU )''On Barriers to Technology Adoption, Appropriate Technology and Deep Integration (with implications for the European Union)''
07.08.2018Sina Ateş (Federal Reserve Board) ''Innovation and Trade Policy in a Globalized World''
14.08.2018Ufuk Akçiğit (University of Chicago) ''Declining Business Dynamism: Some Lessons from the Modern Growth Theory and Patent Data''
14.08.2018Sang Seok Lee (Bilkent University) ''Stock Market's Assessment of Monetary Policy Transmission: The Cash Flow Effect''
14.08.2018Selman Erol (Carnegie Mellon)
''Interbank Networks in the Shadows of the Federal Reserve Act''
14.08.2018Burçin Kısacıkoğlu (Bilkent University)
''The Information Content of News Announcements''
14.08.2018Daron Acemoğlu (MIT)
''Endogenous Production Networks''


04.11.2016Galip Kemal OzhanFinancial Intermediation, Resource Allocation, and

Macroeconomic Interdependence
25.11.2016Julien LabonneIncumbent Advantage, Voter Information

and Vote Buying
16.12.2016Benjamin BornDoes Austerity Pay Off?


Date PresenterSubject
06/10/2015 Lutz Kilian,Michigan Department of Economics''A General Approach to Recovering Market Expectations from Futures Prices With an Application to Crude Oil’
9/10/2015Raffaella GiacominiModels, Information and Expectation Updates
13/10/2015Serdar Özkan,University of TorontoWhat Do Data on Millions of U.S. Workers Say About Life Cycle Labor Income Risk?
16/10/2015Ngoc-sang Pham''Intertemporal equilibrium with heterogeneous agents, endogneus dividends and barrowing constraints.''
27/11/2015Michael WeberInflation Expectations and
18/12/2015Enes SunelExternal Shocks, Banks and Optimal Monetary Policy in an Open Economy


19 September, 2014Secil Yıldırım,
Bilkent University
" Uncertainty in Financial Markets and Business Cycles"
26 September, 2014Bilin Neyaptı,
Bilkent University
"The Nexus of Economic and Institutional Evolution"
09 October, 2014Paolu Surico, LBS''Federal Transfer Multipliers: Quasi-experimental evidence from Brazil''
17 October, 2014Agustin Perez-Barahona, INRA & Ecole Polytechnique" Environmental Pollution and Biodiversity: Light Pollution and Sea Turtles in the Caribbean"
7 NovemberPhilippe Andrade, Banque de France"Fundamental Disagreement''
28 November, 2014Peter Karadi, European Central Bank ''Monetary Policy Surprises, Credit Costs And Economic Activity"
10 December, 2014Seda Köymen''Wage Inequality, Skill-Specific Unemployment and Trade Liberalization''
26 December,2014Yalin Gunduz, Bundesbank

'‘Impacts of the Financial Crisis on Eurozone Sovereign CDS Spreads’'
22 January, 2015Debborah J. Lucas, MIT''Evaluating the Cost of Government Credit Support: The OECD Context''
6 February, 2015Kirill Shakhnov, EUI''The Allocation of Talent: Finance versus Entrepreneurship''
9 February, 2015Sina Ates, UPENN''Beyond Cash:
Venture Capital, Firm Dynamics, and Economic Growth''
11 February, 2015Engin Kara''Inflation, Oil Prices and the Great Recession''
20 February, 2015Matteo Luciani''Dynamic Factor Models, Cointegration, and Error
Correction Mechanisms''
27 March, 2015Ayse Kabukcuoglu, KOÇ University
''What helps forecast U.S. inflation? - Mind the gap!''
3 April, 2015Andrei A. Levchenko,
University of Michigan
"TFP, News, and “Sentiments:” The International Transmission of Business Cycles"
10 April, 2015Erinç Yeldan, Bilkent University“Impact Analysis of the Turkish Employment Subsidization Measures, 2008-2013: An Applied General Equilibrium Analysis”
17 April, 2015Diaa Noureldin, The American University in Cairo
“Volatility Prediction Using A High-Frequency-Based Component Model”
15 May, 2015Karim Abadir
''Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics?
Examples From Finance and Economics''

2013-2014 Spring

29th January Sang Seok Lee ( University of Oxford ) / Job Market SeminarInformation Value of the Interest Rate and the Zero
Lower Bound
17th February Asli Senkal ( University of Virginia ) / Job Market SeminarMisallocation and Recovery Rates
20th FebruaryAta Can Bertay ( Tilburg University ) / Job Market SeminarThe transmission of real estate shocks through multinational banks
14th MarchNicolas Coeurdacier ( Sciences Po )The One-Child Policy and Household Savings
21st MarchBeata Javorcik ( Oxford University )Accession to the World Trade Organization and Tariff Evasion
28th MarchSergey Slobodyan ( CERGE-EI )Adaptive learning and survey expectations of inflation
4th AprilLars Svensson ( IIS Stockholm ) Leaning Against the Wind” Leads to a Higher (Not Lower)
Household Debt-to-GDP Ratio
11st AprilHelene Rey ( LBS )Financial integration and growth in a risky world
18th AprilGirorgio Primiceri ( Nortwestern and Bocconi )Credıt Supply and the Housıng Boom
9th MayKursat Onder ( TCMB )Collateralized Sovereign Debt in a Model of Equilibrium Default
16th MayZvi Eckstein ( Herzliya )How does education affect marriage and employment?
JuneAysegul Sahin ( NY Fed )TBA

2013-2014 Fall

10th SeptemberLinda Tesar (University Of Michigan)Saving Europe? The Unpleasant Arithmetic of Fiscal Austerity in Integrated Economies
20th SeptemberAnder Perez (Pompeu Fabra University)
Is Bank Debt Special for the Transmission of Monetary Policy?
Evidence from the Stock Market
27th SeptemberYildiz Akkaya (Bilkent University)The Uncertainty of Interest Rate Path as a Monetary Policy Tool
4th OctoberSelin Sayek Boke (Bilkent University)Banking Crisis Lessons from History: Learning from Emerging Economies’ Experiences
8th OctoberPeter Diamond (MIT)Interpreting the Beveridge Curve
1st NovemberWouter Den Haan (LSE)Inventories and the Role of Goods-Market Frictions for Business Cycles
8th NovemberMarcel Fratzscher (DIW)Bubble Thy Neighbor:
Portfolio Effects and Externalities from Capital Controls
15th NovemberDomenico Giannone (ECARES/LUISS)Prior Selection for Vector Autoregressions
22nd NovemberRoberto Pancrazi (Warwick)Participation Costs and Consumption Smoothing:
Theory and Empirical Evidence
29th NovemberFrancesco Giavazzi (Bocconi)The output effect of fiscal consolidation plans
13rd DecemberMirko Wiederholt (Frankfurt)Dispersed Inflation Expectations and the Zero Lower Bound
23rd DecemberDirk Krueger (Upenn)Intergenerational Redistribution in the Great Recession

2012-2013 Spring

15 MarchKevin Sheppard (Oxford University)''Ambiguity and the historical equity premium''
22 MarchHakki Yazici ( Sabanci University)''Machines, Buildings, and Optimal Dynamic Taxes''
5 AprilPhilippe Martin ( Sciences Po)''Time To Ship During Financial Crises''
12 AprilTommaso Monacelli (Bocconi )
"Tax Cuts vs Government Spending: Welfare and the Zero Lower Bound"
19 AprilShin Kanaya (Aarhus University)''Are University Admissions Academically Fair? ''
26 April
Veronica Rappoport (LSE)
''Dissecting the Eff ect of Credit Supply on Trade:
Evidence from Matched Credit-Export Data''
24 May
Emanuel Ornelas (LSE)
''Institutions and Export Dynamics"

2012-2013 Fall

26 SeptemberGauti Eggertsson''Deficits; Public Debt Dynamics and Tax and Spending Multipliers''
5 OctoberRefet Gurkaynak''Judging the DSGE Model by Its Forecast''
12 OctoberZeynep Kantur''Aging and Monetary Policy''
9 NovemberBartosz Mackowiak''Business Cycle Dynamics under Rational Inattention''
14 NovemberHarald Uhlig“The Dynamics of Sovereign Debt Crises and
16 NovemberThomas Chaney''The Gravity Equation in International Trade: An Explanation''
23 NovemberAndrea Ichino''The Inefficiency of Worker Time Use''
5 December Egon ZakrajsekUncertainty, Financial Frictions, and Irreversible Investment
7 December Jordi Gali''Notes for a New Guide to Keynes (I):
Wages, Aggregate Demand, and Employment''
14 DecemberTalha Yalta"Small Sample Bootstrap Inference of Level
Relationships in the Presence of Autocorrelated Errors: A Large Scale
Simulation Study and an Application in Energy Demand"

2011-2012 Spring

June 1Carlos Velasco
(Universidad Carlos III de Madrid)
May 4Mika Meitz
(Koç Uni.)
May 2Carmen Camacho
April 27Bertrand Wigniolle
(Université Panthéon-Sorbonne)
April 20Ceyhun Elgin
(Boğaziçi Uni.)
April 13İhsan Tunalı
(Koç University)
April 6Hakan Yetkiner ve Bahar Sağlam
(İzmir Ekonomi Uni. and Hacettepe Uni.)
A Romerian Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth
March 30Thomas Seegmuller
Rational Bubbles and Macroeconomic Fluctuations:
The (de-)Stabilizing Role of Monetary Policy
March 23Kamil Yılmaz
(Koç University)
March 16Peter Robinson
(London School of Economics)
Gaussian Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Fractional Time Series Models
February 03Cuong Le VanGeneral Equilibrium and Growth

2011-2012 Fall

January 13Mehmet Ali UlubaşoğluRomes without Empires: Urban Concentration, Political Competition, and Economic Growth
December 23Temel TaşkınUnemployment Insurance and Home Production
December 16Erem AteşağaoğluSkill-Biased Technological Change and Homeownership
December 06Filiz ÜnsalCapital Flows and Financial Stability: Monetary Policy and Macroprudential Responses
December 02Murat KoyuncuGrowth and Income Inequality under Progressive Taxation
November 25
November 21Sahibe Meral ÇakıcıDefault Risk Premium and Aggregate Fluctuations in a Small Open Economy
November 18Hande KüçükPortfolio Allocation and International Risk Sharing
November 11
November 04
October 27Brendan McCabeTesting for Parameter Constancy in Non Gaussian Time Series
October 14Çağaçan DeğerAn Overlapping Generations Analysis of Social Security Reform in Turkey
04.09.2019Sang Seok LEE (Bilkent University)"A Modest Proposal for Sharing Consumption Risk"
15.10.2019Mark KerBenfischer (Economist at Deutsche Bundesbank)"What do a Billion Trades say About the Effect of Monetary Policy on Financial Markets"
10.12.2019Ambrio Cesa - Bianchi ( Bank of England)Firm Heterogeneity, Credit Spreads, and Monetary Policy
20.12.2019Kamil Yılmaz (Koç University)"Bond Market Connectedness and Monetary Policy in the New Normal "
06.03.20200Özer Karagedikli (SEACEN)TBA
13.03.2020Antonella Trigari (Bocconi University)TBA
24.03.2020Ali Özdağlı (Boston Fed)TBA
03.04.2020Filip Matejka (CERGE)TBA
13.04.2020Ruy Lama (IMF)TBA
22.04.2020Nobu Kiyotaki (Princeton and LSE)TBA
08.05.2020Morten Ravn (UCL)TBA
19.05.2020Corina Boar (NYU)TBA
02.06.2020Ulrich Muller (Princeton)TBA
Sinem Hacıoğlu (BOE)TBA